Because of where the warm areas of water are located and the directions from which the winds are blowing, scientists are speculating that many of the storms associated with El Niño may miss large portions of the state leaving them high and dry. If the weather patterns continue on the path they have been recently following, it is believed that most of the storms for 2015 season will hit the southern part of the state. This means that areas like Los Angeles will get ample amounts of rain, while areas like Sacramento and other cities further north will likely miss out on the majority of the rain and snow.
Diminished Sierra Snowpack
Many scientists and meteorologists believe that the upcoming El Niño season will not produce enough snow to adequately replenish the Sierra Snowpack. The Sierra Snowpack is a large deposit of snow found in the higher elevations of the Sierra Mountains. The snow deposit is responsible for almost a third of the state's water supply when sufficient amounts of precipitation fall in the area. Rain and snow that falls in the mountains during the fall and winter months create the snowpack. During the spring and summer months, the temperatures cause the snow to gradually melt, replenishing aquifers and local ground water supplies.
Ridiculously Resilient Ridge
A dense, high pressure area known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge runs along the coast of California and is notorious for preventing large storm fronts from depositing any type of precipitation in the area. The position of the ridge has played an integral role in many large storms that have approached the California coast. When an El Niño type storm approaches the ridge, the high barometric pressure in the area actually works to divert it and alter its course along the coast. In some cases, the storm is redirected far enough away that any precipitation that falls does little to improve drought conditions.
Pure Bad Luck
In the past, predicting the weather was a guessing game. With today's advancements in technology, meteorologists have a variety of tools at their disposal that enable then to accurately track weather systems and storm fronts. Even with the most accurate in digital and meteorological tools, scientists still have a chance at making a mistake when predicting future weather patterns. The variables when it comes to predicting the path of an El Niño storm include the temperature of the water nearest to the equator, the temperature of large areas of water several miles off shore and the strength and temperature of winds that are headed inland from far reaches of the ocean.
Although El Niño storm fronts offer a modest promise of rain and an increase in precipitation that will help to end the drought conditions in California, there are many factors that must be taken into consideration. Both residents and professional weather watchers must remain diligent in their efforts to conserve water in case the storms miss the area or simply do not produce enough moisture to make a sufficient difference. By keeping a close eye on weather trends and patterns, meteorologists can offer their predictions about the amount of water the state will receive. In the end, however, El Niño should not be counted on to end the drought and replenish the state's water supply.